Travis Childers

Despite his large reserve (for a freshman) in cash on hand, the campaign committee of John Sarbanes made few transfers to Democratic lawmakers around the country.

Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore): Campaign PhotoAccording to his Federal Elections Commission report, the campaign committee of Seventh district Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore) made $47,420 in political donations in the second financial quarter of 2008, a third of what he raised.

Cummings dispersed the majority of his political donations to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, with $28,000 made to the national committee in three transfers.

He sent $2,000 each to to First district Democrat Frank Kratovil and Congressional Black Caucus chair and Michigan Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick.

On last night's "Race for the White House" on MSNBC, host David Gregory cited Eighth district Democrat Chris Van Hollen as someone who is not excited about riding Barack Obama's coattails.

Citing an item in Monday's Wall Street Journal, Van Hollen's picture was up on the screen next to Representatives Tim Mahoney of Florida and Travis Childers of Mississippi.

It was a strange grouping.

Seventh district Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore) finished the second financial quarter of 2008 with $687,579, growing his warchest from $630,247 in February.

Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore): Campaign PhotoThe seven-term incumbent raised over $128,000 in the quarter, which began in April and ended June 30 and spent less than $29,000.

His committee had few costs in way of expenditures, with much of it going towards donations to organizations and several Democratic candidates around the country, including $2,000 to First district hopeful Frank Kratovil (D-Stevensville).

Chicago humorist Finley Peter Dunne coined the phrase “Politics ain’t beanbag” long ago. But, sometimes in politics no matter what you throw, beanbags in the dirt are all you get.

We don’t know what type of nasty Karl Rove/Newt Gingrich campaign to expect from our local GOP candidates this year. It’s possible they’ll change course. It’s possible they’ll grow up. It’s possible a wacky out-of-state third party will choose not to spend $500,000 or more in October. It’s possible they won’t have the money to do what they want.

But if it’s true that past performance is the best predictor of future behavior, we can expect the worst.

Three good reasons -- and three not so good reasons -- why Frank Kratovil's got a steeper climb than Travis Childers did.