Frankly speaking at the DCCC

Queen Anne's County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil seems to have everybody's support to win the Democratic nomination to go up against the Republican victor of the Gilchrest primary in the First District.

Still, this is a presidential year in a Republican district where Bush defeated Kerry 62-36%, and the DCCC knows it.

In the meantime, he’s raising money like an incumbent. He’s one of the top in-state fundraisers in 2007, pulling in $164,000 (not including the big-name fundraisers he’s holding this week with the likes of Governor Martin O’Malley and Attorney General Doug Gansler). Kratovil is steamrolling his primary opponent attorney Christopher Robinson, and there’s no doubt that the DCCC has already been talking to him.

But sources close to Kratovil say that while he is hopeful and likes what he’s hearing out of Washington, he has not yet received any monetary pledges from the DCCC.

That’s no surprise since the DCCC has not made spending decisions for anywhere in the country yet. Aides there would not comment on whether Chairman Chris Van Hollen will show special attention to a second- (possibly top-) tier pickup opportunity in his home state.

Those at the DCCC might be hoping that a messy Republican primary will leave a publicly damaged, financially drained candidate. But perhaps they forget that this primary is in February, leaving almost nine whole months for the Republican to regenerate cash and image.

Sure the National Republican Congressional Committee is at a huge disadvantage to their Democratic counterpart, but unless the DCCC drops serious coin on this race – something they almost never do for first-time challengers in heavily Republican districts – the ‘weakened Republican’ dog won’t hunt.

Kratovil sources also say that the DCCC would be much more likely to get involved in the event that Gilchrest lost and state Sen. Andy Harris got the nomination.

They said the DCCC is worried about Kratovil having to face a moderate like Gilchrest or even state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who is more conservative but not perceived as being too extremist. Right now, they’d prefer Harris, feeling his profile may be too conservative for a district that tends to elect moderates.

Someone might want to remind them that Harris has raised half a million dollars and will have nine months to do it again. He won’t even need the NRCC.

On the other hand, Kratovil might. And there’s no sure signal that they’ll be there for him.