Harris campaign: New intenal poll puts Harris 16 points ahead of Kratovil
By Danny Reiter, PolitickerMD.com Reporter44% To 28%; 27% Undecided
Andy Harris: Campaign Photo
A new internal campaign poll, obtained by PolitickerMD.com, shows state Sen. Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) with a 16-point lead over his opponent, state's Attorney Frank Kratovil (D-Stevensville) in Maryland's 1st Congressional District.
44.3 percent of those polled by the Harris campaign said they will or are likely to vote for Harris, while 28.3 percent said the same of Kratovil. Another 27.3 percent remain undecided.
This Harris campaign's survey of 300 registered voters was conducted just over a week ago on July 15, and has a margin of error of 5.65 percent. The results show Kratovil's support eroding from his campaign's April poll in which he trailed Harris by only nine points, 43 percent to 34 percent with 23 percent undecided.
Harris, one of the most conservative members of the state Senate, won the Republican nomination over nine-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Wayne Gilchrest on Feb. 12 in what was viewed as a hard fought and divisive campaign. Gilchrest still refuses to concede the race to Harris and some of his campaign workers have gravitated towards Kratovil.
But the new poll perhaps allays Republican fears that the brutal primary did long-lasting damage to Harris' image. His favorability rating stands at 37 percent, more than triple his 12 percent negatives. 38 percent of voters had no opinion while 13 percent have never heard of him.
Meanwhile Kratovil's ratings come in at 14 percent favorable and 14 percent unfavorable with 48 percent having no opinion and 24 percent having never heard of him -- well above those who are unfamiliar with Harris, leaving more room for his opponent to define him.
Still, the prospects of a Democrat winning the seat in 2008 are better than they have been in many years, which began with the recruitment of a politically experienced challenger in Kratovil, first elected Queen Anne's County State's Attorney in 2002. In June, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee highlighted his bid by adding it to their 'Red-to-Blue' program which identifies promising pickup opportunities and provides financial and advertising support.
According to a polling memo composed by Harris' pollster Arthur J. Finkelstein, Kratovil's "liberal positions and close ties to Gov. O’Malley are viewed negatively," indicating Harris may focus his campaign on tying his opponent Democrats in Annapolis and Washington.
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So Tell Us, Eileen...
Eileen, I'm curious - just what makes you a "Republican for Kratovil"?
I'm not asking this to be hectoring - my curiosity is genuine. What are the issues that move you as a voter? Which are the issues made you a Gilchrest supporter, and what are the issues that make you a Kratovil supporter now?
There are quite a few of us
There are quite a few of us "Kratovil Republicans". For various reasons, we're not coming out of the closet but will take action in the voting booth.
The Whole "Vision" Thing...
Well, Johnson, why don't you educate us all, with specifics, as to Frank Kratovil's "vision"?
I have made no such
They usually just make me laugh.
And the Dems can paint McCain as the 2nd coming of W, and you can paint Kratovil as O'Malley's evil twin, but in the end the voters look at the issues and the vision, and you guys just don't measure up.
Funny, How Projection Works...
JL -
The amazing thing about "projection" is how when we envision others, we invariably attribute our own behaviors to others (especially when those behaviors are "unacceptable). In this case, you apparently see me as "red-faced" and about to explode.
I have made no such characterizations regarding you - but I'm sorry if my posts have made you angry, frustrated, and ready to burst out.
Now, as to your interesting statements regarding the role of the President - I find that interesting in light of two things. First, the continued attempts by the Democrats to paint a John McCain presidency as another term for George W. Bush. Second, you, yourself, raised the issue of George W. Bush...
"The party of George Bush has presided over an unprecedented weakening of the dollar against other international currencies, and no matter how much or how little oil is ever found in the Arctic, the price of a barrel of oil will continue to be sky high unless and until the U.S. gets its financial house in order... Scratch the surface of the issues, Chrissy, and you'll find a festering sore underneath, caused by your president and your party. And Andy wants to maintain the status quo? Great news for the Democrats in November in Maryland-01." - Johnson Lineir, 5/30/08
"To know Andy is to loathe
Yup, you got it right.
Thanks for asking.
When the voters are ready to hear about the issues, which usually happens after the dog days of August, the kids are back in school, and the election is on the news and in the papers everyday, they will want to focus on what is really important. Not the nonsense we keep hearing out of you and the rest of Andy's staff about O'Malley and Uncle Steny, et al.
This election will not be about O'Malley and Steny and Van Hollen, just as the Presidential election will not be about W. It will be about who can best take America forward.
That is how and why you will lose.
Right now, the only ones paying attention to this race are those who read this site, Red Maryland, Monoblogue, Swing State Project, Bud's site, etc. The overwhelming majority of the 250,000 people who will cast a ballot in November don't yet have a clue as to who is running in the First District. It's just the way it is, and just the way it has always been.
So continue to hang your hat on Artie's sample of 300. I'm cool with that. In fact, every time I see your posts I can just picture how red your face is, like a cartoon character whose head is about to explode.
Quite amusing, actually.
"To know Andy is to loathe Andy?
"To know Andy is to loathe Andy."
Do I have that right?
Then please to explain the fact that with 87% of those polled knowing Andy, his favorables are 24 points higher than Frank Kratovil's, who has nearly a quarter of the voters now knowing who he is?
Do you actually read what you write before you hit the "Post comment" button, or do you just say things without thinking them through?
To answer your question,"why isn't Andy Harris running away with it as his predecessor did?"
There are two ways to answer that. The first is, Andy's predecessor, had he won the primaries, wouldn't have done as well as he himself had done in prior elections, given how angry much of his base had become at his voting record, and the way the generic ballot shapes things (caught between a rock and a hard place, Gilchrest would have been).
Second, back to that generic ballot. Many Republicans, whether they're incumbents or newcomers, are having a tougher year than they have in the past. That's to be expected, and completely unsurprising.
The bottom line is that the odds should have been in Frank Kratovil's favor (which is why he got in, after all - he saw a weakened Gilchrest, what he thought was an incapable challenger in Andy Harris, and his Uncle Steny, his mentor O'Malley, and his co-account holder Van Hollen all said that this was the right time for him). Unfortunately, he's found that Harris is a better campaigner than he expected, that those "Kratovil Republicans" really don't exist, and that every time O'Malley or Hoyer opens their mouth, it's like another slap in the face for his campaign.
Poll
He paid a pollster in May. This poll is from July. We won't know for sure until we get 3rd quarter finance reports, but it would seem as if there's another poll out there that is not being released.
From the non-partisan
From the non-partisan "CampaignDiaries.com":
"...it is somewhat surprising that Harris has taken the step of releasing a poll in which he is as low as 44% in a district that voted for Bush with 62% of the vote. Not to mention that there is reason to be skeptical of this internal poll, whose sample is only 300 voters... [I]t says something about the GOP’s anxieties over its open seats that this survey is considered good news by the Republican candidate."
Nobody is saying this this
Let's see. We're in a R +9.8 district.
Your guy's poll has him up by 16.
In 2006, Gilchrist won by 38.
In 2004, Gilchrist won by 49.
In 2002, Gilchrist won by 51.
And in the closest recent race in 2000, Gilchrist won by 29.
Harris spent $1 million on TV. Kratovil spent $0. That will undoubtedly change. Name recognition will change. And to tie him to O'Malley will not work. Voters are way smarter than that after 8 years of the Bushit.
Would I prefer it was closer at this point, sure. But why isn't your guy running away with it as his predecessor did? Because to know Andy is to loathe Andy. Please schedule some more meet-and-greets and help Frank out.
THAT'S Your Response, JL?
The man who just a couple of days ago was practically daring the the Harris Campaign to release their internal poll? Aren't you the person who said, "Harris hasn't released the results of his poll. You know if he was doing well, Little Chrissie Meekins would be shouting it from the rooftops."
This is fascinating - you dare the campaign to release the numbers, betting on some vague hope that they were floundering. They call you on your dare, release the numbers, release the questions even, and _THIS_ is what you have to say?
This, and your lame attempt at spinning by using the Obama-McCain Rasmussen numbers from Florida?
Uh uh, JL. Maybe its time you put down that glass of Kool-Aid McCann handed you, and do a little critical thinking.
Nobody is saying this this is cut-and-dried, but surely you can admit that in July of a year in which Democrats are favored in the generic ballots, Frank Kratovil ought to be doing better than he is in the polls? Can't you even admit that?
I'm fairly certain that you can't, but please, prove me wrong.
Andy Harris
Go Andy Harris.....Any associated with O"Malley is toast....remember he endorsed Hillary......Martin O'Malley does not care about the people, he and his croonies only care about obtaining power and keeping it, and taking away people's rights while they are at it......I pray Andy wins.........
Who says they called Eastern
Who says they called Eastern Shore? How many of the 300 live in Bel Air and nearby areas? Plenty.
Back in October the polls
Back in October the polls had Hillary whipping Obama.
'Nuff said.
Of course, just 28% of
Of course, just 28% of respondents have formed an opinion of Kratovil compared to 50% of Harris.
Kratovil in April touted his advantage on the heard of both question. I wonder what it is today...
Kratovil is Toast and he
Kratovil is Toast and he knows it.
This isn't a cakewalk. It's
This isn't a cakewalk. It's even easier. This is a moonwalk.
Citation please
Shoreman, can we have a citation for that? There are ways to determine accuracy for polls but it's dependent on the standard deviation and number of respondents. A 5.65% margin of error is pretty big and we don't even know the confidence interval for this poll. So don't just arbitrarily throw out numbers like you have the slightest idea what you're saying.
A quote from Chris Meekins
A quote from Chris Meekins when the Kratovil campaign released a poll saying they were trailing by 9 points, but leading by 8 points among those familiar with both candidates:
"Internal polls can be skewed one way or the other."
http://www.politickermd.com/kevinagnese/2374/poll-shows-harris-leading-n...
I wonder if Chris feels the same way about his campaign's poll?
Clearly you do not
Clearly you do not understand polling. 1,001 people is considered a scientific poll for the UNITED STATES. Using the Eastern Shore as a microsm, 300 people is about correct. You're just a Krapovilian who is upset because Frankie-Boy is getting smashed. Just when you thought he was picking up steam, turns out he was just shoveling coal.
i wouldn't take this poll for much
300 respondents is hardly enough to be accurate...
tell andy boy to spend some more money on polling as you need AT LEAST 1,000 or so to give accurate results...
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